The Influence of the Asymptomatic Transmission on the Number Symptomatic Cases Within a Modified SIR Model

Flavius Guiaş ()
Additional contact information
Flavius Guiaş: Dortmund University of Applied Sciences and Arts, Department of Mechanical Engineering

Chapter Chapter 12 in Quantitative Methods and Data Analysis in Applied Demography - Volume 2, 2025, pp 137-154 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract We consider an extension of the classical SIR model in epidemiology which considers two type of infectious states: symptomatic and asymptomatic. By using a Monte Carlo optimization method based on the simulated annealing algorithm we perform a parameter identification in order to match statistical data related to the COVID-19 pandemics in Germany between mid-2020 and beginning of 2021. Since in this period the population was not vaccinated, additional effects due to this feature can be excluded. Our analysis takes also into account the facts that for a part of the available data the symptomatic/asymptomatic status is unknown and that within the parameter set of the optimization problem we have to introduce corresponding detecting probabilities, since not all existing cases were also recorded. The results turn out to provide insights related to the transmission mechanism related to the symptomatic/asymptomatic groups, as well as to their detection probabilities.

Keywords: Epidemic model; SIR; SIIR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-3-031-82279-7_12

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783031822797

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-82279-7_12

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().