Amplified Changes: An Analysis of Four Dynamic Fertility Models

Joshua R. Goldstein () and Thomas Cassidy ()
Additional contact information
Joshua R. Goldstein: University of California Berkeley
Thomas Cassidy: Bucknell University

Chapter Chapter 2 in Dynamic Demographic Analysis, 2016, pp 9-29 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Fertility change over time can be modeled in a variety of ways. Implicit in each model is a story of the behavior driving fertility, and the assumptions behind each model provide insights into the forces that influence fertility. We present Ryder’s classic formulation of the translation between period and cohort measures of fertility, Lee’s moving-target model connecting fertility goals with period rates, the period-shift model of Bongaarts and Feeney, and the Goldstein and Cassidy cohort-shift model. All of these models have in common a simplified view of how fertility change occurs. An important lesson of all these formulations is that small variations in timing or targets can produce large fluctuations in period fertility, telling us that period fertility is particularly sensitive to changes in underlying aspects of the fertility process.

Keywords: Total fertility rate; Cohort fertility; Fertility timing; Fertility intentions; Model comparison (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-3-319-26603-9_2

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783319266039

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_2

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().