Prospective Scenarios on Coverage of Deaths in Brazil

Neir Antunes Paes () and Alisson dos Santos Silva
Additional contact information
Neir Antunes Paes: Federal University of Paraíba, Postgraduate Program in Decision Modelling and Health
Alisson dos Santos Silva: Federal University of Paraíba, Postgraduate Program in Mathematical and Computational Modelling

Chapter Chapter 8 in Demography and Health Issues, 2018, pp 83-94 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Vital statistics reflect the health status of a population, which are widely used in the formulation of important demographic indicators. The evolution of vital records in Brazil is marked by political factors and administrative instabilities that have compromised its quality and utility. Due to this commitment, the two main sources of vital records, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and the Ministry of Health, do not capture all of these records, mainly in less developed regions such as the Northeast of Brazil with a population of 57 million inhabitants in 2016. Although there have been gradual advances in coverage of deaths in Brazil, the Northeast region has not yet reached full coverage of deaths (100%). Among the nine states that compose this region, coverage of deaths in 2011 ranged from 79% to 94%. In order to estimate the year in which the states of the Northeast will reach the full coverage of death records projections were performed on coverage of deaths for each state. The annual series of death coverage estimated by the Ministry of Health from 1991 to 2011 were used. The projections were made through the mathematical methods of projections: Logistic, Gompertz and Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Model. The Holt’s model, in general, was the best fit to the pattern of the series of coverage of deaths. The states were classified in three intervals of years when they reached 100% of coverage, which varied from 2019 to 2028. It is estimated that for the Northeast the full coverage of deaths will be reached during 2021–2025. It is expected that these scenarios can contribute to the planning strategies and to the evaluation of managers regarding the actions and policies to be implemented on the performance of death statistics in the Northeast and Brazil.

Keywords: Vital statistics; Mortality; Death coverage; Projections; Brazil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-3-319-76002-5_8

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783319760025

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-76002-5_8

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().