Summary and Conclusion: Beyond Migration Forecasting

Jakub Bijak ()
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Jakub Bijak: School of Social Sciences, Centre for Population Change and S3RI, University of Southampton

Chapter Chapter 12 in Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View, 2011, pp 237-250 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In the evaluation of various approaches to migration forecasting discussed in Part II of this book it was argued that the predictions of population flows should ideally be model-based, probabilistic and explicitly allowing judgemental elements. They should be also tailor-suited for solving particular research or policy problems rather than aiming at providing general migration forecasting solutions. However, all modelling frameworks presented in Part III have their specific strengths and weaknesses, as well as possibilities for further extensions, signalled in Part IV. This chapter summarises the key findings in Section 12.1 and attempts to put them into the context of general demographic forecasting debates in Section 12.2. Finally, Section 12.3 attempts to sketch possible futures of both international migration and its forecasting in the twenty first century.

Keywords: International Migration; Stochastic Volatility; Random Walk Model; Forecast Horizon; Uncertainty Assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0_12

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