Preliminaries

Jakub Bijak ()
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Jakub Bijak: School of Social Sciences, Centre for Population Change and S3RI, University of Southampton

Chapter Chapter 2 in Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View, 2011, pp 15-34 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In the current chapter, four issues are briefly addressed, which are vital to the further discussion, yet not sufficiently within the scope of the topic of this book to be presented in full. Firstly, the problems with migration data are dealt with, focusing on the diversity of definitions, measurement errors, and possible ways to overcome the inconsistencies within the statistical information. Secondly, the issues concerning uncertainty, subjectivity and expert judgement are discussed, together with their role in migration forecasting. Thirdly, general remarks on the Bayesian statistical inference are presented, with the aim of serving as reference throughout the remaining parts of the book. Finally, numerical algorithms used in Bayesian computations are briefly discussed, based on the example of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations.

Keywords: Posterior Distribution; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Prior Distribution; International Migration; Predictive Distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-90-481-8897-0_2

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DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0_2

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