Evaluation of Presented Forecasts of European Migration

Jakub Bijak ()
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Jakub Bijak: School of Social Sciences, Centre for Population Change and S3RI, University of Southampton

Chapter Chapter 8 in Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View, 2011, pp 153-173 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The current chapter focuses on two aspects of evaluating the forecasts of migration flows, presented earlier in Chapters 5, 6 and 7. Firstly, Section 8.1 deals with the sensitivity of the results to changes in the assumed prior distributions and in the information they carry. The focus of the discussion is on the precision parameters of the assumed random processes. Secondly, in Section 8.2, selected Bayesian forecasts are compared with their frequentist counterparts in terms of errors ex ante and ex post, in the latter case computed for forecasts for 2000–2007 calculated on the basis of series truncated in 1999.

Keywords: Mean Absolute Percentage Error; Predictive Distribution; Migration Flow; Random Walk Model; Emigration Rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0_8

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