Introduction

David A. Swanson and Jeff Tayman
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David A. Swanson: University of California Riverside
Jeff Tayman: University of California San Diego, Department of Economics

Chapter Chapter 1 in Subnational Population Estimates, 2012, pp 1-11 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Although subject to flaws, the most complete and reliable source of information on a population is taken from a census (Bryan, 2004a, 2004b; Swanson and Walashek, 2011). However, a complete enumeration of a population is costly and not all populations have been subject to a census. Even in countries such as the United States, where census counts have been mandated since 1790, their high costs only allow them to be done once every ten years. This means that data can become outdated and that a substitute is needed – a set of population estimates. The development of methods of population estimation roughly corresponds to the development of censuses and vital statistics registries. For example, in the late 18th century, the French mathematician, Laplace, was using what we would today call a censal-ratio method in combination with recorded births and a population sample to estimate the population of France (Stigler, 1986: 163-164). However, methodological development really only took off in the late1930s and late early 1940s, fueled in large part by the need for low-cost and timely information generated by the great depression of the 1930s and World War II. (Bryan, 2004a; Eldridge 1947; Hauser and Tepping, 1944; Shryock, 1938; Shryock and Lawrence, 1949; U. S. Bureau of the Census, 1945, 1949). In the United States, the Census Bureau played a major role in this effort, but it was not alone. During the early 1940s, the Washington State Census Board, for example, developed a comprehensive program of annual population determinations based on estimation methods that are still used today (Swanson and Pol, 2005). Around this same time, demographers also began developing estimation methods for what were then called “underdeveloped countries,” (Brass et al. 1968, Chandrasekaran and Deming, 1949; Davis, 1951; Popoff and Judson, 2004; United Nations, 1967) and the use of sample surveys as a substitute for complete census counts took hold (Bryan, 2004a; Featherman, 2004).

Keywords: Census Tract; Census Bureau; Administrative Record; Census Count; European Contact (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-8954-0_1

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