A Practical Guide to Small-Area Projections

Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman and David A. Swanson
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Stanley K. Smith: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Jeff Tayman: University of California-San Diego, Economics Department
David A. Swanson: University of California Riverside, Department of Sociology

Chapter Chapter 14 in A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections, 2013, pp 373-391 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In this chapter, we present a set of guidelines summarizing the material described throughout the book. These guidelines are intended as a road map leading the analyst through the projection process. There are three basic steps. First is to determine exactly what is needed in terms of demographic characteristics, geographic regions, length of projection horizon, and time and budget constraints. Second is to choose the appropriate projection methods, collect and evaluate the input data, adjust for special events, and construct the projections. Third is to review and document the results. These guidelines will not answer every question, but they will provide a checklist highlighting the issues that must be considered and the choices that must be made. We believe they will help the analyst make reasonable choices and—perhaps more important—avoid potentially disastrous pitfalls.

Keywords: Projection Method; Population Projection; Projection Process; Microsimulation Model; Population Forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0_14

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