Extrapolation Methods

Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman and David A. Swanson
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Stanley K. Smith: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Jeff Tayman: University of California-San Diego, Economics Department
David A. Swanson: University of California Riverside, Department of Sociology

Chapter Chapter 8 in A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections, 2013, pp 185-213 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Trend extrapolation methods are those in which future values of a variable are determined solely by its historical values. These methods have often been used for constructing population projections and can be organized into three categories. Simple extrapolation methods are those that have simple mathematical structures and require data for only two points in time. Complex extrapolation methods require data from a number of points in time, have more complicated mathematical structures, and require statistical estimation of the model’s parameters. Ratio extrapolation methods express the population of a smaller unit as a proportion of the population of a larger unit. In this chapter, we describe and illustrate a number of trend extrapolation methods and evaluate their strengths and weaknesses when used for state and local population projections.

Keywords: Base Period; Extrapolation Method; Population Projection; ARIMA Model; Franklin County (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0_8

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