Modeling Elections and Referenda in Ireland

Norman Schofield () and William Simoneau
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Norman Schofield: Washington University in Saint Louis
William Simoneau: Washington University in Saint Louis

A chapter in The Political Economy of Social Choices, 2016, pp 243-259 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Using survey data from the Irish Social Sciences Data Archive (ISSDA), we apply spatial models for the 2007 Irish general election, the 2008 Lisbon Treaty referendum, and the 2009 Lisbon Treaty referendum. These elections occurred right before and during the global financial crisis. This study will provide greater insight into the Irish electorate during this tumultuous time. By estimating through both multinomial and binomial logit models, we find that ideological distance between voter and party plays a significant role in determining the vote in the general election. Moreover, we find that valence plays a significant role in both of the treaty referenda. These findings suggest that the severity of the financial crisis, and the possibility of support from the European Union played a significant role in the positive result for the Yes campaign in 2009.

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Financial Crisis; Policy Position; Lisbon Treaty; Green Party (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:stpocp:978-3-319-40118-8_11

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-40118-8_11

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