The Duverger-Demsetz Perspective on Electoral Competitiveness and Fragmentation: With Application to the Canadian Parliamentary System, 1867–2011

J. Stephen Ferris, Stanley Winer () and Bernard Grofman
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Bernard Grofman: University of California

A chapter in The Political Economy of Social Choices, 2016, pp 93-122 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract We combine consideration of Duverger’s Law (Political parties: Their organization and activity in the modern state. London: Methuen, 1954) with Demsetz’s (J Law Econ 11:55–65, 1968) theory of natural monopoly to provide a novel perspective on the meaning and measurement of electoral competitiveness in a single member district, plurality rule electoral system. In the Duverger-Demsetz view we develop, the degree of competition is determined by the contestability of elections. Contestability declines with party fragmentation, and so an increase in the effective number of parties above the long run level of 2 predicted by Duverger’s ‘Law’ for plurality based single seat elections signals a decline in competitiveness. This argument runs contrary to the view, sometimes expressed in empirical studies of elections and public policy, that more candidates or parties, each with a smaller vote share reflects a more competitive environment. Using the history of the Canadian parliamentary system, we provide qualified support for the Duverger-Demsetz perspective by studying the relationship between the concentration of vote shares and a new index of electoral contestability. Extension of the argument to proportional electoral systems is also considered.

Keywords: Contestability; Demsetz; Duverger; Economic competition; Electoral competition; Marginal seats; Safe seats; Volatility adjusted vote margin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D4 D7 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Working Paper: The Duverger-Demsetz Perspective on Electoral Competitiveness and Fragmentation: With Application to the Canadian Parliamentary System, 1867-2011 (2016)
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-40118-8_5

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