Forecasting Swiss Mail Demand

Urs Trinkner and Martin Grossmann

Chapter Chapter 16 in Progress toward Liberalization of the Postal and Delivery Sector, 2006, pp 267-280 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The demand for mail is facing a great challenge. In recent years, substitutes such as e-mail and SMS (Short Message Service) have become a cheap, fast and convenient alternative. In the near future, new broadband-based services, the breakthrough of digital signatures, fully Web-based payment systems, and contracting solutions will further affect the mailing industry. In Switzerland, total addressed mail peaked in the last quarter of 2000, as shown in Figure 1. Since then, mail volumes have been shrinking. Yet it is not clear whether e-substitution has been the underlying cause or whether this was due to some other factor such as the economic slowdown in Switzerland between 2001 and 2003.

Keywords: Gross Domestic Product; Price Elasticity; Substitution Model; Error Correction Model; Forecast Horizon (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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DOI: 10.1007/978-0-387-29744-6_16

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