How the COVID-19 Crisis is Impacting Postal Markets? A New Assessment One Year Later

Antonin Arlandis (), Catherine Cazals, Eric Gautier and Nour Meddahi
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Antonin Arlandis: “Doctrine and Modelization” Department, Direction of Regulation, Competition and Institutional Affairs—La Poste Groupe
Catherine Cazals: TSE, University of Toulouse Capitole
Eric Gautier: TSE, University of Toulouse Capitole
Nour Meddahi: TSE, University of Toulouse Capitole

A chapter in Postal Strategies, 2023, pp 301-311 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The Covid-19 crisis has a huge impact on postal markets. In 2020 this crisis has led to a decline in economic activity, which has resulted in a decrease larger than usual in mail volumes and revenues for postal operators. However, parcel volumes and revenues of the main postal operators increased faster than usual. Since then, large vaccination and test campaigns in many countries mitigated this impact and has led economic activity to gradually recover, even when the pandemic resurged. The growth in parcel volumes has slowed down somewhat in 2021 compared to 2020. In 2021 mail volumes appear to have stabilized compared to 2020 in some countries (or at least have decreased less than in 2020 in other countries). An econometric analysis is carried out to investigate the effect of Covid-19 in terms of structural break. Our results seem to indicate that Covid-19 did not have an effect on the structural relation between mail volumes and GDP and trend (a proxy for e-substitution) but had an effect on the structural relation between parcel volumes and GDP and e-commerce.

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:topchp:978-3-031-25362-1_22

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-25362-1_22

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