Forecasting the Number of Passengers Serviced at the Bulgarian Railway Stations

Sophia Mirchova and Preslav Dimitrov
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Sophia Mirchova: SWU ‘Neofit Rilski’, Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria
Preslav Dimitrov: SWU ‘Neofit Rilski’, Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria

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Abstract: The railway transport in Bulgaria is controlled and coordinated by the Railway Administration Executive Agency. This transport and its infrastructure are put under serious pressure in connection with its membership in the European Union. The problem of forecasting in the new strategic documents is crucial to the formation of proper innovation infrastructure policy for the future development of the tourism in the country. This paper is aimed at presenting the lack of real forecasting in many of the strategic documents adopted for the development of the railway transport in Bulgaria (i.e. the REGULATION No 1335/2008 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 16 December 2008 amending Regulation No 881/2004 establishing a European Railway Agency (Agency Regulation), COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING REGULATION No 402/2013 of 30 April 2013 on the common safety method for risk evaluation and assessment and repealing Regulation No 352/2009, COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING REGULATION (EU) 2015/10 of 6 January 2015 on criteria for applicants for rail infrastructure capacity and repealing Implementing Regulation (EU) No 870/2014, many directives and decisions concerning the railway transport). There are also many International Bilateral Rail Cross-border Agreements. The paper provides a practical example for the use of the double exponential smoothing in the presence of a linear trend and the lack of cyclicity on the number of tourism arrivals at Bulgarian railway stations.

Keywords: railway transport, strategic documents, railway infrastructure policy, double exponential smoothing method forecasting, Holt method; linear trend (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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