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Baltic Dry Index as Economic Leading Indicator in the United States

Pawel Baltyn
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Pawel Baltyn: Maria Curie-Sklodowska University in Lublin, Poland

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Abstract: This working paper describes the current state of research on the usefulness of application of the index Baltic Dry Index to forecast changes in the economic situation in the United States. The first part of the article briefly describes what the Baltic Dry Index and how it is constructed. Further discussed are reasons to regard this index as an index of pre-economic situation and is described chosen test method. The method is based on an Bry-Boschan research algorithm determining turning points in the cycle. The aim of the study is to identify the level of diffusion index between changes in US GDP and the Baltic Dry Index for different periods of time (form 0 up to 90 days).

Keywords: Leading Indicator; Baltic Dry Index; BDI; Bry-Boschan; United States; GDP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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