Forecasting the Number of Passengers Serviced at the Bulgarian Bus Terminals

Sophia Mirchova
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Sophia Mirchova: South-West University "Neofit Rilski", Bulgaria

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Abstract: The bus transport in Bulgaria is controlled and coordinated by Executive Agency "Automobile Administration". This transport and its infrastructure are put under serious pressure in connection with its membership in the European Union. The problem of forecasting in the new strategic documents is crucial to the formation of proper innovation infrastructure policy for the future development of the tourism in the country. This paper is aimed at presenting the lack of real forecasting in many of the strategic documents and projects adopted for the development of the bus transport in Bulgaria. A strategy to increase competitiveness by increasing the number of passengers is also in line with the European Union policy to promote a balanced development in the transport sector in Bulgaria. Bulgaria's participation in the TINA project is an important element of the development of transport infrastructure. For Bulgaria, the network is specified on the sections of the five Trans-European Transport Corridors passing through the territory of the country. The paper provides a practical example for the use of double exponential smoothing, also known as Holt Method in the presence of a linear trend and a lack of cyclicity on the number of tourism arrivals at Bulgarian bus terminals.

Keywords: bus transport; bus terminals; cyclicity; double exponential smoothing method; Holt method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tkp:mklp18:527-535

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