Effectiveness of Polish and Foreign Disdcriminant Models

Slawomir Juszczyk and Rafal Balina
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Slawomir Juszczyk: Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Poland
Rafal Balina: Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Poland

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Abstract: This article focuses on a study whose thesis was to ascertain whether current bankruptcy forecasting models are effective in relation to companies involved in international commercial road transport. In the case of the international commercial road transport sector, the best foreign model – in terms of overall performance – was the Altman III model with 80% accuracy, followed by the Altman II model with a performance rating of 77.5% for this sector. These results, in effective identification of bankrupt and solvent companies by the use of foreign discriminant models, indicate limited accuracy in their application under the structural and legal conditions in Poland. During research regarding the effectiveness of contemporary models, it was observed that there are Polish discriminant models that are based on multiple tests (with regard to commercial entities), which can be utilized in assessing bankruptcy risk in the considered sector. The best Polish models for assessing bankruptcy risk in the commercial road transport sector were the Poznan (Hamrol and others) models and the Hadasik IV model which had a performance assessment of 82.5%. In the case of other models, their performance ran at lower percentages and therefore could not be considered for analyzing commercial entities in the studied sector.

Keywords: bankruptcy; bankruptcy forecast; discriminant analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tkp:tiim13:s6_313-323

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