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A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM 2.0). New Results (2021)

Serguei Kaniovski (), Thomas Url, Helmut Hofer and Viola Garstenauer
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Thomas Url: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Viola Garstenauer: Institute for Advanced Studies

in WIFO Studies from WIFO

Abstract: We use an updated version of the Austrian Long-run Macroeconomic Model (A-LMM) for a long-term projection of the Austrian economy until 2075. Our baseline scenario is the input for microsimulation models of the Austrian pension insurance system. A-LMM 2.0 is a neoclassical growth model using demographic indicators to determine TFP-growth, the savings and the inflation rate. The model allows for labour saving technological progress and replicates stylised facts about growing market economies with an ageing population. The current model update incorporates the recent population forecast, information from labour market and national accounts data. Compared to the previous report we expect higher labour market participation rates, lower output growth, and a temporary upswing in inflation.

Date: 2021 Written 2021-08-02
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