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Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation

Bankim Chadha, Paul Masson and Guy Meredith

Chapter 3 in Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, 2019, pp 57-99 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: The focus of this analysis is on the output costs of disinflation. A model of inflation with both forward and backward elements seems to characterize reality. Such an inflation model is estimated using data for industrial countries, and the output costs of a disinflation path are calculated, first analytically in a simple theoretical model, then by a simulation of a global, multiregion empirical model. The credibility of a preannounced path for money consistent with the lowest output loss is considered. An alternative, more credible policy may be to announce an exchange rate peg to a low-inflation currency.

Keywords: Exchange Rates; Modelling; Monetary Unions; Inflation Targeting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F45 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Related works:
Journal Article: Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation (1992) Downloads
Working Paper: Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation (1991) Downloads
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