Forecast Performance of the Taiwan Weighted Stock Index: Update and Expansion

Deng-Yuan Ji, Hsiao-Yin Chen and Cheng Few Lee

Chapter 6 in Handbook of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, and Machine Learning:(In 4 Volumes), 2020, pp 275-295 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: This research introduces the following to establish a TAIEX prediction model: intervention analysis integrated into the ARIMA-GARCH model, ECM, intervention analysis integrated into the transfer function model, the simple average combination forecasting model, and the minimum error combination forecasting model. The results show that intervention analysis integrated into the transfer function model yields a more accurate prediction model than ECM and intervention analysis integrated into the ARIMA-GARCH model. The minimum error combination forecasting model can improve prediction accuracy much better than non combination models and also maintain robustness. Intervention analysis integrated into the transfer function model shows that the TAIEX is affected by external factors, the INDU, the exchange rate, and the consumer price index; therefore, facing the different issues of the TAIEX, the government could pursue some macroeconomic policies to reach the goals of policies.

Keywords: Financial Econometrics; Financial Mathematics; Financial Statistics; Financial Technology; Machine Learning; Covariance Regression; Cluster Effect; Option Bound; Dynamic Capital Budgeting; Big Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C1 G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/9789811202391_0006 (application/pdf)
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/9789811202391_0006 (text/html)
Ebook Access is available upon purchase.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789811202391_0006

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in World Scientific Book Chapters from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().