Sustainable Growth Rate, Optimal Growth Rate, and Optimal Payout Ratio: A Joint Optimization Approach

Hong-Yi Chen, Manak C. Gupta, Alice C. Lee and Cheng Few Lee

Chapter 97 in Handbook of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, and Machine Learning:(In 4 Volumes), 2020, pp 3413-3464 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: A large number of studies have examined issues of dividend policy, while they rarely consider the investment decision and dividend policy jointly from a non-steady state to a steady state. We extend Higgins’ (1977, 1981, 2008) sustainable growth rate model and develop a dynamic model which jointly optimizes the growth rate and payout ratio. We optimize the firm value to obtain the optimal growth rate in terms of a logistic equation and find that the steady-state growth rate can be used as the benchmark for the mean-reverting process of the optimal growth rate. We also investigate the specification error of the mean and variance of dividend per share when introducing the stochastic growth rate. Empirical results support the mean-reverting process of the growth rate and the importance of covariance between the profitability and the growth rate in determining dividend payout policy. In addition, the intertemporal behavior of the covariance may shed some light on the fact of disappearing dividends over decades.

Keywords: Financial Econometrics; Financial Mathematics; Financial Statistics; Financial Technology; Machine Learning; Covariance Regression; Cluster Effect; Option Bound; Dynamic Capital Budgeting; Big Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C1 G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Journal Article: Sustainable growth rate, optimal growth rate, and optimal payout ratio: A joint optimization approach (2013)
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