A Dynamic CAPM with Supply Effect: Theory and Empirical Results

Cheng Few Lee, Chiung-Min Tsai and Alice C. Lee

Chapter 100 in Handbook of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, and Machine Learning:(In 4 Volumes), 2020, pp 3517-3544 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: Breeden [An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities. Journal of Financial Economics 7, (1979) 265–296], Grinols [Production and risk leveling in the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. Journal of Finance 39, 5, (1984) 1571–1595] and Cox et al. [An intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices. Econometrica 53, (1985) 363–384] have described the importance of supply side for the capital asset pricing. Black [Rational response to shocks in a dynamic model of capital asset pricing. American Economic Review 66, (1976) 767–779] derives a dynamic, multiperiod CAPM, integrating endogenous demand and supply. However, Black’s theoretically elegant model has never been empirically tested for its implications in dynamic asset pricing. We first theoretically extend Black’s CAPM. Then we use price, dividend per share and earnings per share to test the existence of supply effect with US equity data. We find the supply effect is important in US domestic stock markets. This finding holds as we break the companies listed in the S&P 500 into 10 portfolios by different level of payout ratio. It also holds consistently if we use individual stock data. A simultaneous equation system is constructed through a standard structural form of a multiperiod equation to represent the dynamic relationship between supply and demand for capital assets. The equation system is exactly identified under our specification. Then, two hypothesis related to supply effect are tested regarding the parameters in the reduced-form system. The equation system is estimated by the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method, since SUR allows one to estimate the presented system simultaneously while accounting for the correlated errors.

Keywords: Financial Econometrics; Financial Mathematics; Financial Statistics; Financial Technology; Machine Learning; Covariance Regression; Cluster Effect; Option Bound; Dynamic Capital Budgeting; Big Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C1 G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Journal Article: A dynamic CAPM with supply effect: Theory and empirical results (2009)
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