Option Price and Stock Market Momentum in China
Jianping Li,
Yanzhen Yao,
Yibing Chen and
Cheng Few Lee
Chapter 103 in Handbook of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, and Machine Learning:(In 4 Volumes), 2020, pp 3619-3647 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Abstract:
Option prices tend to be correlated to past stock market returns due to market imperfections. This chapter discuss this issue in Chinese derivative market. Implied volatility spread based on pairs of options is constructed to measure the price pressure in the option market. By regressing the implied volatility spread on past stock returns, we find that past stock returns exert a strong influence on the pricing of index options. Specifically, the SSE 50 ETF calls are significantly overvalued relative to SSE 50 ETF puts after stock price increases, and vice versa. Moreover, we empirically validate that momentum effects in the underlying stock market are responsible for the price pressure. These findings are both economically and statistically significant and have important implications.
Keywords: Financial Econometrics; Financial Mathematics; Financial Statistics; Financial Technology; Machine Learning; Covariance Regression; Cluster Effect; Option Bound; Dynamic Capital Budgeting; Big Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C1 G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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