Stop Shy of the First Down

Peter Cotton

Chapter 11 in Sports Analytics, 2022, pp 139-151 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: On the first down, an NFL player should stop shy of the first down marker unless they can make several extra yards on the play. The decision can be clarified by introducing the notion of implied yards per possession. Strategies for 2nd and 3rd down with 1 yard are discussed. The often used strategy of pass on 2nd and run on 3rd is not optimal. The value of various field positions for success is also studied.

Keywords: Sports Analytics; Statistical Analysis of Sports Decisions; NFL Football; Thoroughbred Racing; Basketball; Baseball; Hockey; Jai Alai; Optimal Betting Strategies; Mean Reversion Risk; Arbitrage; Decision Strategies by Coaches (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 L83 Z2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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