Efficiency in NFL Betting Markets

Leonard C. MacLean and William T. Ziemba

Chapter 12 in Sports Analytics, 2022, pp 153-165 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: In this chapter we investigate whether or not the NFL odds are weak form efficient. Using data from the 2017 season, we show that it is. So to win you need to have superior handicapping and/or superior betting. We focus on the latter and show that with scores changing a lot, thus changing prices, the strategy of mean reversion risk arbitrage usually leads to winning outcomes. This is useful in various sports and financial markets and we use it for three NFL seasons in Chapters 13–15. Ten more seasons are in our NFL Guidebook, Ziemba and MacLean (2018). We also discuss odds of winning, point spreads and the ELO system for ranking teams.

Keywords: Sports Analytics; Statistical Analysis of Sports Decisions; NFL Football; Thoroughbred Racing; Basketball; Baseball; Hockey; Jai Alai; Optimal Betting Strategies; Mean Reversion Risk; Arbitrage; Decision Strategies by Coaches (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 L83 Z2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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