A Pick 6 Tale

William T. Ziemba

Chapter 23 in Sports Analytics, 2022, pp 411-431 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: This chapter discusses an interesting Pick 6 in the mud at Belmont on May 30, 2021 where I investigate combining the picks of three expert handicappers to try to merge them together to win the Pick 6 and collect a number of Pick 5/6’s. It turns out that the merger would have been very successful to get a large Pick 6 and numerous Pick 5/6. Some other Rainbow and ordinary Pick 6’s are also studied and suggest that bettors prefer long odds horses in the Pick 6 and not the favorites as widely thought. The results are suggestive of a special type of favorite-longshot bias which is much stronger than the usual bias in the win market.

Keywords: Sports Analytics; Statistical Analysis of Sports Decisions; NFL Football; Thoroughbred Racing; Basketball; Baseball; Hockey; Jai Alai; Optimal Betting Strategies; Mean Reversion Risk; Arbitrage; Decision Strategies by Coaches (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 L83 Z2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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