Does Revenue Momentum Drive or Ride Earnings or Price Momentum?

Hong-Yi Chen, Sheng-Syan Chen, Chin-Wen Hsin and Cheng Few Lee

Chapter 18 in Handbook of Investment Analysis, Portfolio Management, and Financial Derivatives:In 4 Volumes, 2024, pp 613-666 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: This paper examines the profits of revenue, earnings, and price momentum strategies in an attempt to understand investor reactions when facing multiple information of firm performance in various scenarios. We first offer evidence that there is no dominating momentum strategy among the revenue, earnings, and price momentums, suggesting that revenue surprises, earnings surprises, and prior returns each carry some exclusive unpriced information content. We next show that the profits of momentum driven by firm fundamental performance information (revenue or earnings) depend upon the accompanying firm market performance information (price), and vice versa. The robust monotonicity in multivariate momentum returns is consistent with the argument that the market does not only underestimate the individual information but also the joint implications of multiple information on firm performance, particularly when they point in the same direction. A three-way combined momentum strategy may offer monthly return as high as 1.44%. The information conveyed by revenue surprises and earnings surprises combined account for about 19% of price momentum effects, which finding adds to the large literature on tracing the sources of price momentum.

Keywords: Financial Accounting; Financial Auditing; Mutual Funds; Hedge Funds; Asset Pricing; Options; Portfolio Analysis; Risk Management; Investment Analysis; Momentum Analysis; Behavior Analysis; Futures; Index Futures; CDCs; Financial Econometrics; Statistics; Financial Derivatives; Financial Accounting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 G11 G12 G3 M41 M42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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