Demand, Supply and Need Analysis for Offsite Construction in a Post-COVID World

Sadeghi J., Nesarnobari S., Kordestani N. and Jelodar M. B.

Chapter 11 in Building a Body of Knowledge in Modern Methods of Construction and Offsite Construction, 2025, pp 294-323 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions across global industries, extremely affecting the dynamics of offsite construction (OSC). The OSC success relies on the flawless flow of materials through the supply chain, which was severely challenged during the pandemic. Furthermore, demand fluctuated unpredictably, posing a dual challenge for this sector. This chapter delves into an in-depth analysis of the post-COVID-19 OSC landscape, describing strategies to boost sector resilience. For this purpose, a three-stage methodology was adopted: first, causal loop diagram (CLD) modelling is rooted in the existing literature and involves theoretical conceptualisation. Then, it engaged in empirical verification and revision of preliminary CLD through a case study. Finally, four experiments using stock and flow simulations of Cross Laminated Timber (CLT) supply chains in different time frames are crafted. The experiments look at the period from pre-COVID to post-COVID. The initial model depicted an ideal, pre-COVID CLT supply chain with maximum daily production. The second illustrates the pandemic’s disruptive impacts on CLT production, where despite sustained workloads and orders, the daily production dropped. The second experiment resulted in a 55% drop from the total value of assembled elements at local project locations. On the other hand, in the early post-COVID era, the third simulation illustrated that when no strategy is learnt from COVID, the production is one-third of the pre-COVID amount. It is understood that some COVID-19-persuaded strategies are temporary and specific to infectious disease pandemics, while others are enduring lessons, such as approaches to imported equipment maintenance and machinery resilience. Local solutions for equipment issues emerged as viable alternatives while importing expert repairers accelerated maintenance procedures. Additionally, the utilisation of in-house facilities and partnerships with established transport providers emerged as long-lasting strategies to enhance the sector’s resilience against future disruptions. Therefore, in the post-COVID era, as New Zealand’s residential market intentions trend upwards, the fourth simulation illustrated sustainable strategies collected from the pandemic experience where manufacturers could potentially boost productivity by up to 20% compared to pre-COVID operations, conditional on adapting long-lasting strategies for acceleration of transportation and assembly rates.

Keywords: Modern Methods Of Construction; Offsite Construction; Prefabrication; Digital Technology; Sustainability; Circular Economy; Supply Chain; Procurement; Health & Safety; Risk; Capacity and Capability; Offsite Manufacturing; Preassembly; Innovation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D24 L7 L74 M11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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