THE USE OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN STUDYING EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES — CASE GRID COMPUTING

Mika Lankila, Liisa-Maija Sainio and Jukka-Pekka Bergman
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Mika Lankila: Deloitte, Finland
Liisa-Maija Sainio: Department of Business Administration, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland
Jukka-Pekka Bergman: Department of Electrical Engineering, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland

Chapter 8 in Challenges in the Management of New Technologies, 2007, pp 101-118 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: AbstractThe goal of this study was to explore how scenario analysis may be used in evaluating the future business environment of an emerging technology, namely Grid computing, that also contains features of a disruptive technology. Grid computing may change the traditional product-based computing to service-based activities which would have a major impact on the industry. The scenarios were created in an expert workshop in Geneva in December 2003. Four environmental, explorative scenarios in the 2010 timeframe were designed, by firstly identifying the main driving forces and evaluating their uncertainty and impact. The most important driving forces that emerged in voting were the issues of security and value creation, and they formed the dimensions for the scenarios to be created: strong added value vs. publicly supported development, and mistrust concerning the security issues vs. blind trust. The scenarios were named Brave New World, Commercial Dodo, Trust Me, and Dead Duck. After refining the scenarios, they were approved by the expert workshop participants. The scenarios brought up various issues that will have to be solved before the commercialization of Grid services. Because of its flexibility, scenario analysis was regarded as a suitable method for examining the complexity related to the future of Grid computing.

Keywords: Management of Technology; Innovation Process; Knowledge Management; Cross-Border Collaboration; Interdisciplinary Collaboration; Indicators for Measuring Innovation; Business in High-Tech Industry; Sustainability; Social Aspects of Technology Management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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