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EARLY WARNING DETECTION OF BANKING DISTRESS — IS FAILURE POSSIBLE FOR EUROPEAN BANKS?

Anissa Naouar
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Anissa Naouar: EconomiX — UMR 7166, 200, avenue de la république, 92000 Nanterre Cedex, France

Chapter 11 in Risk Management and Value:Valuation and Asset Pricing, 2008, pp 231-275 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: AbstractThe aim of this paper is to predict banking distress resulting from capitalization problems in order to justify the viability of Prompt Corrective Actions in Europe. In particular, I examine the impact of the “safety net” and the role of rating agencies through negative credit watches, using a binomial logit model in order to predict European commercial banks capital stress and to test the contribution of institutions and regulatory factors. I also study the impact of concentration and moral hazard generated by deposit insurance on banking stability. My results are in line with previous findings in the literature and demonstrate not only a negative influence of institutional and regulatory factors on European banking systems' distress probability but also a significant role for the rating agencies. In addition, the quality of national regulatory frameworks including supervision restrains considerably moral hazard and excessive risk taken by European commercial banks.

Keywords: Risk; Value; Management; Derivatives (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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