USING THE GAMMA DISTRIBUTION TO FIT FECUNDITY CURVES FOR APPLICATION IN ANDALUSIA (SPAIN)

F. Abad-Montes, M. D. Huete-Morales and M. Vargas-Jiménez
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F. Abad-Montes: Dpto. Estadística e Investigación Operativa, Universidad de Granada, C/Fuentenueva, s/n, Granada, España, Spain
M. D. Huete-Morales: Dpto. Estadística e Investigación Operativa, Universidad de Granada, C/Fuentenueva, s/n, Granada, España, Spain
M. Vargas-Jiménez: Dpto. Estadística e Investigación Operativa, Universidad de Granada, C/Fuentenueva, s/n, Granada, España, Spain

Chapter 9 in Distribution Models Theory, 2006, pp 161-171 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: AbstractAnalysis of the evolution of specific fecundity rates, by the age of the mother, i.e. fecundity curves, and their modelling, is of vital importance when we seek to obtain projections or forecasts of the behaviour of this demographic phenomenon. Indeed, on some occasions these estimates do not need to be reasonable from the populational standpoint, but may have the goal of establishing hypothetical scenarios. The present study includes an analysis of the observed data for total births (without taking into account the order of birth) by age and by female population. These data, for the period 1975–2001, were provided by the Statistical Institute of Andalusia (IEA) and were used to construct synthetic fecundity indicators, which are the most basic and the most effective means of accounting for the global behaviour pattern of the phenomenon within a given period. Subsequently, the observed fecundity curves were fitted using a Gammatype distribution. This distribution is one of the most commonly used, for two main reasons: it provides very good quality fits, and the parameters of the distribution are identified perfectly with the indicators of fecundity. Finally, various behaviour hypotheses are proposed, on the basis of the information obtained during the period of analysis.

Keywords: Inference; Uncertainty; Copulas; Stochastic Dominance; Bayesian Techniques; Hierarchical Bayesian Model; Poisson-Gamma-Gamma Model; Experience Rating; Specific Fecundity Rates; Fecundity Curves; Topp and Leone Distributions; Waring Distribution; Factorial; Cluster; Discrimination Analyses; Survival Functions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 C7 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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