Business Indexes and Survey Data for Forecast

Yuji Shimanaka and Tatsushi Shikano
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Yuji Shimanaka: Business Cycle Research, Japan and Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, Japan and Waseda University, Japan
Tatsushi Shikano: Waseda University, Japan

Chapter 4 in Macroeconometric Modeling of Japan, 2010, pp 79-105 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: AbstractThe following sections are included:IntroductionThe Criteria to Recognize Economic ConditionsThe business indexes, GDP statistics, and the BOJ TankanSchumpeter's approach and the BOJ's TankanMomentary wind velocity and the GDP growth ratePredicting the economic outlook by the direction of changeMonthly surveys — Reuters, economy watchers, and the consumer confidenceThe Use of Leading Indexes — MUS Leading IndexThe history of Japan's business indexesThe MUS Leading Index (MUS-LI) for the Japanese economyThe performance of the MUS-LI for the Japanese economyThe merits and demerits of forecasts using leading indexesReferences

Keywords: Forecasting Models; Growth Models; Detailed Examination of the Lost Decade in the 1990s; Applications of Input-Output Models; CGE Models; Social Accounting Models; Model Analyses of Econometric Policies; Survey Data; Diffusion Index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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