When to Sell Apple and the NASDAQ? Trading Bubbles with a Stochastic Disorder Model

A. N. Shiryaev, M. V. Zhitlukhin and W. T. Ziemba

Chapter 11 in Great Investment Ideas, 2016, pp 231-248 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: In this paper, the authors apply a continuous time stochastic process model developed by Shiryaev and Zhutlukhin for optimal stopping of random price processes that appear to be bubbles. By a bubble we mean the rising price is largely based on the expectation of higher and higher future prices. Futures traders such as George Soros attempt to trade such markets. The idea is to exit near the peak from a starting long position. The model applies equally well on the short side, that is when to enter and exit a short position. In this paper we test the model in two technology markets. These include the price of Apple computer stock AAPL from various times in 2009–2012 after the local low of March 6, 2009; plus a market where it is known that the generally very successful bubble trader George Soros lost money by shorting the NASDAQ-100 stock index too soon in 2000. The Shiryaev-Zhitlukhin model provides good exit points in both situations that would have been profitable to speculators following the model. who employed the model.

Keywords: Investment Management; Portfolio Theory and Practice; Great Investors; Stock Market Anomalies; Evaluation Theory; Portfolio Performance; Stock Market Performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/9789813144385_0011 (application/pdf)
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/9789813144385_0011 (text/html)
Ebook Access is available upon purchase.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789813144385_0011

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in World Scientific Book Chapters from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().