Analysis of NCG Prices Under Different Shapes of Oil Price Recovery with a Worldwide Gas Market Model

Maik Günther and Mostafa Fallahnejad

Chapter 13 in Handbook of Energy Finance:Theories, Practices and Simulations, 2020, pp 301-316 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: Natural gas plays an important role in Europe. During the last 10 years, the European gas market has undergone significant changes. While the share of oil-indexed gas in markets has declined, gas-on-gas competition has grown significantly. This chapter investigates gas prices at the trading hub NetConnect Germany (NCG) under various oil price scenarios in the period 2017 to 2023. This is done by performing sensitivity analyses using the worldwide gas market model WEGA. The results reveal that the NCG prices are very sensitive to the changes of oil prices throughout this period. However, NCG prices are smoothed and delayed due to the price formula of oil-indexed contracts as well as the decline of the share of oil-indexed gas.

Keywords: Energy Finance; Financial and Economic Modeling; Volatility; Forecasting; Quantitative Finance; Energy Markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G20 G32 Q40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/9789813278387_0013 (application/pdf)
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/9789813278387_0013 (text/html)
Ebook Access is available upon purchase.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789813278387_0013

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in World Scientific Book Chapters from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().