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The Kelly Strategy for Investing: Risk and Reward

Leonard C. MacLcan and William T. Zicmba

Chapter 33 in Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making:In 2 Parts, 2013, pp 637-681 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: A strategy which has been of long standing interest in investing is the Kelly strategy, where the expected logarithm of wealth is maximized. There are many attractive properties when this strategy is used over a long planning horizon. Notably, the asymptotic growth rate of wealth is optimal and the time to reach asymptotically large wealth targets is minimized. However, the risk aversion of the Kelly strategy is essentially zero and the strategy is very risky in the short term. Investors can lose most of their wealth with a string of bad outcomes. In this paper the Kelly strategy and the associated fractional strategies are considered. The advantages and disadvantages are described in general and in particular with application to a variety of market scenarios. The conclusion discusses the use of Kelly type strategies by great investors.

Keywords: Financial Decision Making; Asset Pricing; Prospect Theory; Utility Theory; Risk Aversion; Static Portfolio Theory; Stochastic Dominance; Dynamic Modeling; Dynamic Portfolio Theory; Tactical Asset Allocation; Kelly Strategy; Capital Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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