Eastern Enlargement of the EU: A Comprehensive Welfare Assessment

Wilhelm Kohler

Chapter 3 in European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, 2014, pp 85-112 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: The paper derives an equation explaining the various welfare effects of an eastern EU enlargement for an incumbent country. It then quantifies these effects for each present member state of the EU. The quantification is based on a numerical simulation model for Germany, which renders welfare elasticities for various parts of the enlargement scenario, including trade and migration as well as the budgetary costs. Based on calculations of country-specific “enlargement shocks,” the German elasticity values are applied to other EU15 countries. Aggregating across countries gives an EU15-wide overall welfare benefit from enlargement equal to 0.3 percent of GNP.

Keywords: Economic Integration; WTO Membership; Immigration; Offshoring; European Union; International Trade; Migration; Gravity; Germany; Equilibrium; Tariff Liberalization; Commercial Policy; Eastern Enlargement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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