Fiscal Spending and Economic Growth: Some Stylized Facts

Celine Carrere and Jaime de Melo

Chapter 7 in Developing Countries in the World Economy, 2015, pp 167-196 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: Using an "event analysis", this paper complements the cross-country approach to the study of fiscal correlates of growth. Data on fiscal expenditures and growth for a database of 140 countries (118 developing countries) over 1972–2005 are reorganized around turning points providing a summary but encompassing description of "what is in the data". For this sample, the probability of occurrence of a fiscal event is about 10%, and, the probability of a growth event once a fiscal event had occurred is around 26%. For developing countries, fiscal events followed by growth events occur under situations of (i) significantly lesser deficit, (ii) fewer resources devoted to non-interest general public services and (iii) shift in primary expenditures toward transport & communication. After controlling for the growth-inducing effects of positive terms-of-trade shocks and of trade liberalization reform, probit estimates indicate that a growth event is more likely to occur in a developing country when surrounded by a fiscal event. Moreover, the probability of occurrence of a growth event in the years following a fiscal event is greater the lower is the associated fiscal deficit, confirming that success of a growth-oriented fiscal expenditure reform is associate with a stabilized macroeconomic environment (through limited primary fiscal deficit).

Keywords: Trade Barriers and Market Structure; Quantitative Restrictions; Political Economy and Migration; Trade and the Environment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Related works:
Journal Article: Fiscal Spending and Economic Growth: Some Stylized Facts (2012)
Working Paper: Fiscal Spending and Economic Growth: Some Stylized Facts (2012)
Working Paper: Fiscal Spending and Economic Growth: Some Stylized Facts (2012)
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