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Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union

Glenn Harrison, Thomas F. Rutherford and David Tarr

Chapter 16 in Applied Trade Policy Modeling in 16 Countries:Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, 2014, pp 395-404 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: With a CGE model, we quantify the impact of the Customs Union between Turkey and the European Union (EU). Since the average tariff on non-agricultural imports will be less than 2 percent, the trade diversion costs of the Customs Union are quite small. Improved access to third country markets (through reciprocal preferential access agreements of the EU) results in the largest gains from the Customs Union, estimated overall to be about 1–1.5 percent of Turkish GOP. Applying the VAT uniformly (rather than raising it to compensate for the tariff revenue loss) will increase the welfare gain from joining the EU.

Keywords: International Trade Policy; Developing Countries; Computable General Equilibrium; World Bank; Regional Trade Policy; Services Liberalization; Foreign Direct Investment; Trade and Poverty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Related works:
Journal Article: Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union (1997) Downloads
Working Paper: Economic implications for Turkey of a customs union with the European Union (1996) Downloads
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