Deep Trade Policy Options for Armenia: The Importance of Trade Facilitation, Services and Standards Liberalization

Jesper Jensen and David Tarr

Chapter 19 in Applied Trade Policy Modeling in 16 Countries:Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, 2014, pp 453-508 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: In this paper the authors develop an innovative 21 sector computable general equilibrium model of Armenia to assess the impact on Armenia of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU, as well as further regional or multilateral trade policy commitments. They find that a DCFT A with the EU will likely result in substantial gains to Armenia, but they show that the gains derive from the deep aspects of the agreement. In order of importance, the sources of the gains are: (i) trade facilitation and reduction in border costs; (ii) services liberalization; and (iii) standards harmonization. A shallow agreement with the EU that focuses only on preferential tariff liberalization in goods will likely lead to small losses to Armenia primarily due to a loss of productivity from lost varieties of technologies from the Rest of the World region in manufactured products. Additional gains can be expected in the long run from an improvement in the investment climate. The authors estimate only small gains from a services agreement with the CIS countries, but significant gains from expanding services liberalization multilaterally.

Keywords: International Trade Policy; Developing Countries; Computable General Equilibrium; World Bank; Regional Trade Policy; Services Liberalization; Foreign Direct Investment; Trade and Poverty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Related works:
Journal Article: Deep trade policy options for Armenia: The importance of trade facilitation, services and standards liberalization (2012)
Working Paper: Deep trade policy options for Armenia: The importance of trade facilitation, services and standards liberalization (2011)
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