The Strategic and Tactical Value of Commodity Futures

Claude B. Erb and Campbell Harvey ()

Chapter 6 in The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets, 2015, pp 125-178 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: Investors face numerous challenges when seeking to estimate the prospective performance of a long-only investment in commodity futures. For instance, historically, the average annualized excess return of the average individual commodity futures has been approximately zero and commodity futures returns have been largely uncorrelated with one another. The prospective annualized excess return of a rebalanced portfolio of commodity futures, however, can be “equity-like.“ Some security characteristics (such as the term structure of futures prices) and some portfolio strategies have historically been rewarded with above-average returns. It is important to avoid naive extrapolation of historical returns and to strike a balance between dependable sources of return and possible sources of return.

Keywords: Futures Markets; Pricing; Risk Management; Futures Trading; Stock Indexes; Interest Rates; Futures Prices; Portfolio Theory; Hedge Funds; Foreign Exchange (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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