INTERNATIONAL SHORT TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS: A DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL OF SPECULATION IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE

Sven W. Arndt

Chapter 17 in Evolving Patterns in Global Trade and Finance, 2014, pp 241-252 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: The role of speculative short term capital movements in balance of payments adjustment and in exchange market stability is examined. A theory of speculative behavior with a distributed lag model of expectation formation at its core is developed and empirically tested using the Canadian data for the period 1952-1960. Tests of an alternative but generically similar specification of the model are also presented and discussed.

Keywords: Preferential Trade Areas; Fragmentation; Cross-Border Production Networks; Off-Shoring; Currency Areas and Monetary Union; Single vs. Dual-Exchange Rate Regimes; Stabilization Policy in Open Economies; International Monetary Relations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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