Trading Under the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Model

Tim Leung and Xin Li

Chapter 2 in Optimal Mean Reversion Trading:Mathematical Analysis and Practical Applications, 2016, pp 11-50 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: Motivated by the industry practice of pairs trading, we study the optimal timing strategies for trading a mean-reverting price spread. An optimal double stopping problem is formulated to analyze the timing to start and subsequently liquidate the position subject to transaction costs. Modeling the price spread by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, we apply a probabilistic methodology and rigorously derive the optimal price intervals for market entry and exit. A number of extensions are also considered, such as incorporating a stop-loss constraint, or a minimum holding period. We show that the entry region is characterized by a bounded price interval that lies strictly above the stop-loss level. As for the exit timing, a higher stoploss level always implies a lower optimal take-profit level. Both analytical and numerical results are provided to illustrate the dependence of timing strategies on model parameters such as transaction costs and stop-loss level…

Keywords: Trading Strategies; Mean Reversion; Optimal Stopping; Optimal Switching; Stop-Loss; Stochastic Processes; Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFS); Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Model; Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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