Econometric Models of Ensuring Financial Stability of Local Budgets

Aktam U. Burkhanov, Zulfiya A. Sagdillayeva, Shahnoza Tojiboeva, Bunyod Usmonov and Bobir Tashbaev

Chapter 39 in The Role of Entrepreneurship in Resolving Modern Global Economic Problems:A Systemic Review, 2026, pp 409-417 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: This research explores the scientific and theoretical dimensions of the financial stability of the local budget. It identifies the factors that influence the financial strength of these budgets. Using the ARDL model to develop an econometric equation based on a time series of economic indicators, the authors hypothesize that there is a notable connection between industrial products, retail turnover, and the service sector as independent variables and local budget revenues as a dependent variable. According to the hypothesis, it was determined that changes in independent variables (industrial products, retail turnover, and services sector) would have a measurable effect on the dependent variable (local budget revenues). A graphic matrix presenting the composition of the dependent and independent variables was described during the 48 quarters of this research. In the econometric analysis utilizing Breusch–Pagan and CUSUM tests were conducted to evaluate adherence to the Gaussian Markov assumptions of significance. Also, during the research, using the ARIMA model, the authors developed a forecast of local budget revenues in the Kashkadarya economic region of the Republic of Uzbekistan for the next five years without considering random factors.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Contemporary Global Economic Problems; Socially-focused Economy; Digital Economy; Climate Economy; Innovative Entrepreneurship; Social Justice; Global Inequality; Realizing Human Potential; Quality of Life; Economic Globalization; Green Transition; Investment Transition; Developing Economies; Central Asian Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F63 L26 O10 O17 Q01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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