Is Crime a “Root Cause” of Central American Emigration? Evidence from El Salvador

Kaleb Abreha, Trinity Johnson and Raymond Robertson

Chapter 8 in Not Just Neighbors:The Remarkable Economic Relationships in North America, 2026, pp 291-311 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: We estimate the impact of President Bukele’s 2022 crime crackdown on migrant encounters at the U.S. border. El Salvador is a key source of migration through the Southern U.S. border and had high crime rates. In March 2022, a surge in violence led to a state of exception and mass arrest of suspected gang affiliates, which raised human rights concerns and significantly reduced homicides. Applying difference-in-differences and synthetic cohort methods, we find an 45–67% decline in U.S. border encounters with Salvadorans relative to others.

Keywords: US–Mexico Trade; Economic Integration; North American Competitiveness; USMCA / NAFTA; Global Supply Chains; Migration and Labor Markets; Wage Inequality; Cross-border Economics; Trade Policy and Development; Regional Economic Integration; US–Mexico Relations; Bilateral Trade Flows; Border Economy; Globalization and Inequality; Policy Responses to Trade Shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F15 F22 J61 O24 P16 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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