Tracking Wage Inequality Trends with Prices and Different Trade Models: Evidence from Mexico

Timothy Halliday, Daniel Lederman and Raymond Robertson

Chapter 12 in Not Just Neighbors:The Remarkable Economic Relationships in North America, 2026, pp 405-441 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: Mexican wage inequality rose following Mexico’s accession to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization in 1986. Since the mid-1990s, however, wage inequality has been falling. Since most trade models suggest that output prices can affect factor prices, this paper explores the relationship between output prices and wage inequality. A Salter–Swan trade model with firm heterogeneity driven by variations in the relative price of tradable relative to non-tradable goods can explain the decline in wage inequality. The paper compares this model’s predictions with Mexican inequality statistics using data on output prices, census data, and quarterly household survey data. In spite of the model’s simplicity, the model’s predictions match Mexican variables reasonably well during the years when wage inequality fell.

Keywords: US–Mexico Trade; Economic Integration; North American Competitiveness; USMCA / NAFTA; Global Supply Chains; Migration and Labor Markets; Wage Inequality; Cross-border Economics; Trade Policy and Development; Regional Economic Integration; US–Mexico Relations; Bilateral Trade Flows; Border Economy; Globalization and Inequality; Policy Responses to Trade Shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F15 F22 J61 O24 P16 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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