Automatic identification system (AIS) data based ship-supply forecasting
Diego de Siqueira Braga and
A chapter in Digital Transformation in Maritime and City Logistics: Smart Solutions for Logistics, 2019, pp 3-24 from Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management
Purpose: The bulk cargo shipping industry is characterized by high cost pressure. Chartering vessels at low prices is important to increase the margin of transporting cargo. This paper proposes a three-step, AI-based methodology to support this by forecasting the number of available ships in a region at a certain time. Methodology: Resulting from discussions with experts, this work proposes a threestep process to forecast ship numbers. It implements, compares and evaluates different AI approaches for each step based on sample AIS data: Markov decision process, extreme gradient boosting, artificial neural network and support vector machine. Findings: Forecasting ship numbers is done in three steps: Predicting the (1) next unknown destination, (2) estimated time of arrival and (3) anchor time for each ship. The proposed prediction approach utilizes Markov decision processes for step (1) and extreme gradient boosting for step (2) and (3). Originality: The paper proposes a novel method to forecast the number of ships in a certain region. It predicts the anchor time of each ship with an MAE of 5 days and therefore gives a good estimation, i.e. the results of this method can support ship operators in their decision-making.
Keywords: AIS data; Ship-supply forecasting; Dry bulk cargo; Artificial intelligence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:hiclch:209386
Access Statistics for this chapter
More chapters in Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL) from Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().