Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices

Niels Haldrup () and Morten Nielsen

Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University

Abstract: The functioning of electricity markets has experienced increasing complexity as a result of deregulation in recent years. Consequently this affects the multilateral price behaviour across regions with physical exchange of power. It has been documented elsewhere that features such aslong memory and regime switching reflecting congestion and non-congestion periods are empirically relevant and hence are features that need to be taken into account when modeling price behavior. In the present paper we further elaborate on the co-existence of long memory and regime switches by focusing on the effect that the direction of possible congestion episodes has on the price dynamics. Under non-congestion prices are identical. The direction of possible congestion is identified by the region with excess demand of power through the sign of price differences and hence three different states can be considered: Non-congestion and congestion periods with excess demand in the one or the other region. Using data from the Nordic power exchange, Nord Pool, we find that the price dynamics and long memory features of the price series generally are rather different across the different states. Also, there is evidence of fractional cointegration at some grid points when conditioning on the states.

Keywords: Cointegration; electricity prices; forecasting; fractional integration and cointegration; long memory; Markov switching (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C2 C22 C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23
Date: 2005-10-17
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-ets
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices (2006)
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