A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

Michael Rosholm, Jonas Staghøj and Michael Svarer

Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University

Abstract: When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present assignment mechanism, which is based on the discretionary choice of case workers. This is done in a duration model context, using the timing-of-events framework to identify causal effects. We compare different assignment mechanisms, and the results suggest that a significant reduction in the average duration of unemployment spells may result if a statistical programme assignment model is introduced. We discuss several issues regarding the implementation of such a system, especially the interplay between the statistical model and case workers.

Keywords: Profiling; Targeting; Statistical Treatment Rules; Heterogeneous Effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J64 J68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40
Date: 2007-11-12
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Working Paper: A Statistical Programme Assignment Model (2007)
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