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Construction and Interpretation of Model-Free Implied Volatility

Torben Andersen () and Oleg Bondarenko ()
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Oleg Bondarenko: School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES, Postal: 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark

CREATES Research Papers from Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University

Abstract: The notion of model-free implied volatility (MFIV), constituting the basis for the highly publicized VIX volatility index, can be hard to measure with accuracy due to the lack of precise prices for options with strikes in the tails of the return distribution. This is reflected in practice as the VIX index is computed through a tail-truncation which renders it more compatible with the related concept of corridor implied volatility (CIV). We provide a comprehensive derivation of the CIV measure and relate it to MFIV under general assumptions. In addition, we price the various volatility contracts, and hence estimate the corresponding volatility measures, under the standard Black-Scholes model. Finally, we undertake the first empirical exploration of the CIV measures in the literature. Our results indicate that the measure can help us refine and systematize the information embedded in the derivatives markets. As such, the CIV measure may serve as a tool to facilitate empirical analysis of both volatility forecasting and volatility risk pricing across distinct future states of the world for diverse asset categories and time horizons.

Keywords: Model-Free Implied Volatility; Corridor Implied Volatility; Realized Volatility; VIX; Volatility Forecasting; Risk-Neutral Density (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 G12 G13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34
Date: 2007-09-17
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-fmk
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