Consumption growth and time-varying expected stock returns

Stig Vinther Møller ()
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Stig Vinther Møller: School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES, Postal: 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark

CREATES Research Papers from Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University

Abstract: When the consumption growth rate is measured based upon fourth quarter data, it tracks predictable variation in future excess stock returns. Low fourth quarter consumption growth rates predict high future excess stock returns such that expected returns are high at business cycle troughs and low at business cycle peaks. The consumption growth rate loses predictive power when it is measured based upon other quarters. This is consistent with the insight of Jagannathan and Wang (2007) that investors tend to review their consumption and investment plans during the end of each calendar year, and at possibly random times in between. The consumption growth rate measured based upon fourth quarter data is a much stronger predictive variable than benchmark predictive variables such as the dividend-price ratio, the term spread, and the default spread.

Keywords: Return predictability; Consumption growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 E21 E44 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 13
Date: 2008-09-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Consumption growth and time-varying expected stock returns (2008)
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